HS-LS4-3. Apply concepts of statistics and probability to support explanations that organisms with an advantageous heritable trait tend to increase in proportion to organisms lacking this trait.[Clarification Statement: Emphasis is on analyzing shifts in numerical distribution of traits and using these shifts as evidence to support explanations.][Assessment Boundary: Assessment is limited to basic statistical and graphical analysis. Assessment does not include allele frequency calculations.]
LS4.B: Natural Selection
Natural selection occurs only if there is both (1) variation in the genetic information between organisms in a population and (2) variation in the expression of that genetic information—that is, trait variation—that leads to differences in performance among individuals. (HS-LS4-2),(HS-LS4-3) The traits that positively affect survival are more likely to be reproduced, and thus are more common in the population. (HS-LS4-3)
LS4.C: Adaptation
Natural selection leads to adaptation, that is, to a population dominated by organisms that are anatomically, behaviorally, and physiologically well suited to survive and reproduce in a specific environment. That is, the differential survival and reproduction of organisms in a population that have an advantageous heritable trait leads to an increase in the proportion of individuals in future generations that have the trait and to a decrease in the proportion of individuals that do not. (HS-LS4-3),(HS-LS4-4)
Adaptation also means that the distribution of traits in a population can change when conditions change. (HS-LS4-3)
Analyzing and Interpreting Data Analyzing data in 9–12 builds on K–8 experiences and progresses to introducing more detailed statistical analysis, the comparison of data sets for consistency, and the use of models to generate and analyze data. Apply concepts of statistics and probability (including determining function fits to data, slope, intercept, and correlation coefficient for linear fits) to scientific and engineering questions and problems, using digital tools when feasible. (HS-LS4-3)
Patterns Different patterns may be observed at each of the scales at which a system is studied and can provide evidence for causality in explanations of phenomena. (HS-LS4-1),(HS-LS4-3)
Associated DCIs: **HS.LS2.D** (HS-LS4-3); **HS.LS3.B** (HS-LS4-3)
ELA/Literacy –
RST.11-12.1 Cite specific textual evidence to support analysis of science and technical texts, attending to important distinctions the author makes and to any gaps or inconsistencies in the account. (HS-LS4-1),(HS-LS4-2),(HS-LS4-3),(HS-LS4-4)
WHST.9-12.2 Write informative/explanatory texts, including the narration of historical events, scientific procedures/ experiments, or technical processes. (HS-LS4-1),(HS-LS4-2),(HS-LS4-3),(HS-LS4-4)
WHST.9-12.9 Draw evidence from informational texts to support analysis, reflection, and research. (HS-LS4-1),(HS-LS4-2),(HS-LS4-3),(HS-LS4-4),(HS-LS4-5)
Mathematics –
MP.2 Reason abstractly and quantitatively. (HS-LS4-1),(HS-LS4-2),(HS-LS4-3),(HS-LS4-4),(HS-LS4-5)

Suggested Activities: